Refinancing breakeven
Pay fees today to save interest every year. How long until it pays back, and the rate that makes it worth it.
- Calculate the annual interest saving from a lower rate
- Calculate the upfront cost: arrangement fee plus call premium
- Work out the breakeven in years and the net benefit by exit
- Find the highest new rate that pays back within a target period
The intuition
Your mortgage lender offers a lower rate if you switch, but switching costs a fee, and your current lender charges a penalty for leaving early. Worth it? Divide the upfront cost by what you save each year: that is how many years it takes to break even. If you plan to sell the house before then, stay put.
A sponsor asks the same question about its portfolio company's debt, with one twist: the clock runs out at exit, because the buyer will usually refinance everything anyway.
Saving a year = debt × (old rate − new rate). Cost = debt × (arrangement fee + call premium). Breakeven = cost ÷ saving. It is worth doing only if breakeven comes before the exit.
Why it works
- The conventions here: the whole balance is refinanced at the same size; the fee and the call premium are paid at closing; the saving is the same every year and is not discounted.
- The arrangement fee is charged by the new lender, as a percentage of the new loan.
- The call premium is charged by the old lender for being repaid early, as a percentage of the old loan. It usually steps down and disappears after a year or two of call protection.
- Net benefit by exit = saving × years remaining − upfront cost. Savings after the exit usually belong to the buyer.
- Waiting for call protection to end saves the premium but gives up the savings in the meantime. If the premium is less than a year's saving, refinancing now wins, as long as rates hold.
- Beyond the rate: a new loan may also be looser, with fewer covenants, more flexibility and a longer maturity, and that has value of its own.
| Saving a year: 500 × 1.5% | 7.5 |
| Upfront cost: 500 × (2% + 1%) | 15.0 |
| Breakeven: 15 ÷ 7.5 | 2.0 years |
| Net benefit by exit: 7.5 × 3 − 15 | 7.5 |
| Without the call premium: 10 ÷ 7.5 | 1.33 years |
| Highest new rate to pay back in 1.5 years: 10% − 15 ÷ (500 × 1.5) | 8.00% |
The formulas
Interest no longer paid each year.
Paid once, at closing.
How long the savings take to cover it.
What is left by the exit.
Run the breakeven backwards.
Worked example
The upfront cost, the saving each year, and divide one by the other.
See it move
Same loan. Change how much cheaper the new loan is, the fee, the call premium and the years left before exit.
- Widen the rate cut. The saving grows and the breakeven shortens.
- Add a call premium. The upfront cost and the breakeven rise, while the no-premium bar does not move.
- Shorten the time to exit. The breakeven does not change, but the net benefit falls, and it can turn negative.
- Raise the arrangement fee. Both breakevens lengthen.
Run it backwards
Same loan, reversed: the sponsor will only refinance if the cost comes back within a set time. What is the highest new rate it can accept?
The savings over the target period must at least equal the upfront cost. So the saving needed each year is cost ÷ period; as a rate, divide by the debt. Subtract that from the old rate.
It is the number the sponsor takes into the negotiation with the new lender: any quote above it does not pay back in time.
Traps
Say it in the interview
“How would you decide whether a portfolio company should refinance its debt?”
Check yourself
4 fresh questions, with new numbers. Answer each one correctly to finish the chapter. Get one wrong and you will see the full working, then you can try it again with new numbers.
Answers within 1% are marked right. Type the number; $, %, x and M are fine. First tries count toward Learned: the topic is Learned once every chapter is done and 75% of first tries were right.
- Saving = debt × rate cut; cost = debt × (fee + call premium).
- Breakeven = cost ÷ saving; it must come before the exit.
- Max new rate = old rate − cost ÷ (debt × target years).
- Savings after exit usually go to the buyer.